THE SPORT COUNT

The draft is exciting for three main reasons:

1. Ballheads of the world get to watch a new set of players trying to carve out a future in the league. You get the surprise guys who come from nowhere (Jamario Moon); the late-season bloomers who justify their draft position (Al Thornton); the high-scoring question mark (Kevin Durant).
2. Draft day sets the trade gears in motion. We’ve already seen the most injured trade ever!
3. New guys for fantasy draft day.

So with the first Sport Countdown, we’ve got the top five fantasy rookies, and some draft notes:

1. Derrick Rose | Chicago Bulls | #1 | You Should Pick Him: 3rd or 4th round, a round after Deron Williams.

In the space of a year, the Bulls went from conference contender to totally busted rebuilding project. It’s that fact that’ll guarantee Rose delivers his fantasy owners the most helpful rookie numbers this year.

Though not a foregone conclusion, a Kirk Hinrich swap isn’t unlikely; despite his abominable efforts last season, other teams still see a grind-it-out defender with an improveable jump shot. If Kirk goes, Rose’ll get close to full starter minutes at the point.

Odds are that if Hinrich stays, Gordon leaves. Either way, Rose’ll get assists; he’s a good passer, and the Bulls will be constantly shaping him as a playmaker. And, don’t forget, the Bulls actually have a lot of young scoring options for Rose to set up.

*What happens to Larry Hughes? Well, can he play some small forward in a Nellieball style offense? Or is Vinny Del Negro just the coach that finally stops giving Hughes minutes he doesn’t deserve? As for Chris Duhon? He’s getting out of Illinois.

Expect: 17 points, 8 assists, 1.5 steals, and a few too many turnovers or ugly lines in the opening months of the season while Rose and the Bulls adjust to each other.

Posted By: Anton

2. Greg Oden | Portland Trailblazers | #1 (2007) | You Should Pick Him: 4th round, right after Andrew Bynum.

The big man will be eased into his delayed rookie season, but if he’s healthy — and for the good of sport-loving alcoholics in Portland, he better be — Greg will start.

He’ll also get good, predictable, statistics with the occasional gem (a seven-block masterpiece, or a 23 rebound surprise) and the occasional Manchild-esque shockers (a 10-turnover disaster, or consecutive 0-point games).

Expect: 14 points, 11 boards, 2.5 blocks, and a beautiful field-goal percentage (with a predictably terrible free-throw rate).

Considering he’s just missed a year, owners might have some justified injury list concerns; they’ll be soothed by the 82 games Amaré Stoudemire played in his comeback from microfracture surgery.

3. Michael Beasley | Miami Heat | #2 | You Should Pick Him: 5th-6th round, two or three rounds after Carlos Boozer.

Potential Beasley owners will worry: a) will Beasley definitely start all season, forcing Udonis Haslem to the bench? b) should we care about those attitude questions*? c) will Marion be sent elsewhere, leaving Beasley to pick up the spare boards and points?

*The Sport Count tip? No. Until he shoots a dog or sets fire to a nightclub, give the benefit of the doubt.

We won’t have to worry about boards with Beasley; he’s a top-notch rebounder. His points will come too. And if Miami’s reluctant attitude keeps up? That might just fire him up.

But there are a lot of ifs, and that means you should wait Beasley out and try to get him late. If someone takes him in the second round, it’s their loss.

Expect: 19 points, 11 boards, 1.4 blocks (if Alonzo comes back in a Lindsey Hunter-ish player-assistant role, that number goes up), and lower than expected turnovers (because Wade gives the ball away enough for all of the Heat).

4. OJ Mayo | Memphis Grizzlies | #3 | You Should Pick Him: 6th round, right after Ben Gordon.

Is the fantasy draft order looking a little obvious? That’s because it is. OJ owners can expect a frustrating, sporadically rewarding season.

Mayo is desperate to prove his NBA worth, and he’s accustomed to scoring — he’ll be delighted to find his teammates, on the whole, aren’t very good at it, so he’ll get a lot of opportunity. They’re not a great group of players either, so there’ll be minutes to burn.

Most of the season will be spent at shooting guard, but Mayo will get more dimes than turnovers. His field-goal percentage won’t help, but if the Grizzlies go run-and-gun his 80%+ free-throw shooting might.

Expect: 19 points, 2.5 assists, a steal, and some worrying 2-from-17 games (afterwards you’ll read: ‘Mayo is a young player on a young team’).

5. Eric Gordon | Los Angeles Clippers | #7 | You Should Pick Him: up off the waivers, like Nate Robinson.

If you draft Eric Gordon, you’ll regret it. He’ll have some disgusting games (1-14 with four turnovers? He’ll do it), there’ll be a position battle at the Clippers with Quinton Ross, Cuttino Mobley, Smush Parker, and Brevin Knight all demanding backcourt time. And Gordon will find it tough to adjust to the NBA.

So Gordon will hit the waivers, and a month or two later he’ll score 35 off the bench, leading to a rush of adds. Then, when the Clippers predictably descend into lottery territory, the backcourt opens up (Brevin Knight will get bought out, and the Spurs will make an offer on Q-Ross), and Gordon rewards his new managers.

Those who drafted him will be angry about all of this.

Expect: A first-half-of-the-season split of seven points per game on 32% shooting, with 2.5 giveaways and absolutely nothing else that helps. Followed by a second-half split of: 18 points, four boards, a steal, two threes and a 35-point thriller every month.

Like Al Thornton basically, with even less rebounding. Or a less consistent Ben Gordon (Gordon owners: ‘less consistent than Ben Gordon? Really? Wow.’)

Some Fantasy Rookie Notes: Westbrook will perform someday, but a first-year point guard on a ridiculously young team in turmoil is going to find things tough, so steer clear on draft day… Gallinari is bound to get shot opportunities in D’Antoni’s Italy-friendly system, but the potential for Bargnani-like numbers is too great.

Nic Batum probably isn’t worth drafting, but he’s worth adding to a watch list — if someone goes down in the Portland frontcourt, Batum could start racking up hustle stats (if, that is, he opts to hussle)… ‘Development’ Joe Alexander isn’t worth considering this year, as the Bucks have Richard Jefferson and Desmond Mason at small forward.

JaVale McGee will end up on your roster for a week after the entire Washington frontcourt gets injured and Eddie Jordan chances the developing McGee. McGee will deliver 3 blocks in five games along with absolutely nothing else.

Posted By: Anton